Jey Young / Ball Boy Blog
One of the most exclusive clubs in all of baseball is 3000 hits.
The 500 HR club is even more exclusive as only 28 players have reached that milestone. As we learned and witnessed in 2022, Tigers 1B/DH Miguel Caberea joined an elite list of seven players to do both; the other six: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Hank Aaron, Willey Mays, Eddie Murray, and Rafael Palmeiro.
Welcome to our 2 part "What about him" mini-series, where we will explore some of the other big names in baseball and if they could become part of the 3000 hit club when their careers come to an end.
3B Kris Bryant
What about the 30yo KB, the former RoY MVP, World Series champ who just signed an 8yr deal with the Rockies this past off-season. KB sits at 931H and 167HR, with averages of 167H/30HR per 162G. KB does have a good track record of playing the majority of seasons and staying productive. His glove also plays well enough to allow him to stay in a lineup. In contrast, his more defensively limited teammates can stay at their natural positions. 2069H/333HR at his current averages would take him 12.39 seasons for 3K and 11.1 seasons for 500HR. KB, sadly, will be a great player, slightly overhyped, and will fall short of both marks. However, 2100H/375HR could be the cards for him.
SS/2B Javy Baez
What about El Mago himself. One of the smoothest defenders in baseball signed with the up-and-coming Tigers during this last off-season after spending the 2nd half of 2021 with the Mets. The 29yo Baez has 829H/152HR in his 7yr career. Leaving him with 2179H/348HR to reach the milestones with his career averages at 150H/28HR per 162G. He would need 14.53 more seasons to reach 3K and 12.42 seasons to reach 500HR. The glove will carry Javy deep into his 30's, and the power should remain, and he likely will end with about 1800H/300HR.
1B Anthony Rizzo
The new Yankee's 1B Rizzo decided to re-up in NY and with the short porch for 2 seasons during this previous off-season. Rizzo is such a great hitter, and I love his swing, his defense is good as well, and he is just a solid all-around player, a true professional. Rizzo's nearly 10yr career, the 32yo vet has 1405H/261HR. With 162G averages, 157H/29HR leaves him with 1595H/239HR. He would need 10.16 more seasons for 3K and 8.24 more seasons for 500. I think he has at least 5 more seasons of high-level play, and 2000H/400HR is the more realistic outcome for Rizzo.
2B/SS Trevor Story
The Redsox 2B and possibly 2023 opening day SS signed a 6yr deal with the Red Sox this past off-season. The 29yo now 2B was the man in Colorado when they had no one and a toxic front-office staff. The staff is gone, and so is Story. The 29yo enters his 7th MLB season and has 799H/165HR thus far. His 162G averages 166H/34HR are very kind and telling of playing in Colorado. Story needs 2201H/335HR to reach the milestones. At his current averages, he needs 13.26 more for 3K and 9.85 more to reach 500HR. It's like he ends at 1700H/350HR is the most likely outcome for Story.
OF/1B Cody Bellinger
I forgot until I started writing about Belli that he is only 26yo; why does he feel so much older than 26? It's because he debuted at 21yo for the Dodgers. The former MVP, RoY, World Series Champ and Gold Glove OF is as talented as anyone in the MLB. The career 577H/138HR feels modest, but those are the numbers. He needs 2423H/362HR to reach the milestones. His 162G averages of 146H/35HR aren't bad at all. 16.57 more seasons to reach 3K, 10.34 more HR. Belli will always be a power guy, that's his game, and we know that. Belli quickly has 10 more seasons of great production; he should end at 2000H/500HR in his career.
SS/2B Francisco Lindor
One of the best gloves first SS in the MLB is also fantastic with the bat in his hands; he did not get paid 10yr and $341MM for just his defensive work. Lindor is also really young at 28yo and in his 7th MLB season. The career numbers for Lindor are 1039H/164HR, needing 1961H/336HR at his 162G 178H/28HR, and at his age of 28, the outcome looks positive. 11.07 more seasons for 3K and 12 more seasons for 500HR. The likeliest outcome for Lindor 2700H/430HR is a couple more gold gloves, a World Series in NY, and a trip to Cooperstown when it's all said and done.
1B Matt Olson
The ATL Braves 1B for the next 8 seasons got traded and signed a massive extension with his hometown Braves. Indeed a boy's dream came true for Olson. The 28yo slugging 1B got out of Oakland with his hometown team and is ready to make Braves fans tell Freddie Freeman who? Olson has 544H/146HR into his 5th MLB season. As they call him in the dugout, Oly needs 2456H/354HR to reach the milestones. Truly a power guy, it would take Olson at his 162G averages 146H/38HR, 16.82 more seasons to reach 3K, and 9.32 seasons to reach 500HR. Likely, Oly lands at 1700H, and I think he can get to the 500HR mark. Give it to me!
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